New Modeling Shows Considerable Rise In COVID-19 In Oregon

PORTLAND, Ore. – After flattening the curve, the Oregon Health Authority says the state’s COVID-19 rate is rapidly increasing, “We know that COVID-19 is in our communities,” said Dean Sidelinger, MD, Oregon state health officer. “This latest model provides us with a sobering reminder that we all need to guard against continued spread, especially as we continue to reopen and the weather gets warmer.”

The OHA is working with three models:

• The optimistic scenario suggests case counts would remain stable at about 180 per day over the next month. This is the least likely scenario to occur because it assumes diagnosis of all new cases and presently about one-third of new infections cannot be traced to a known source.
• The moderate scenario suggests daily infections of COVID-19 could rise over the next month to more than 900 per day, with daily hospitalizations rising from 8 to 27.
• The most pessimistic scenario suggests infections could rise to more than 4,800, and hospitalizations could increase to 82 per day.

Dr. Sidelinger says Oregonians are at the most risk of becoming infected since the Governor first issued the stay-at-order in mid-March.